That’s in the first year, according to Barclays analysts. 100-million. Since Apple will sell about 200-million iPhones, iPads, and Macs in the next year– and each gets a one year subscription to Apple TV+ for free– there will be at least that many users. Paying subscribers is a different animal.
Barclays Tim Long:
- “We model 222M hardware devices sold by Apple over the next 12 months.”
- “We assume that about 50% of those buying a device in the first year will accept the service, yielding well over 100M subscribers a year from now. We exclude sales to China and our estimate of second and third devices at families.”
- “We assume that the trial period will last for one year, at which point we expect subscribers to decline as users opt out, and are partially offset by new additions. Of course the rate of churn will depend meaningfully on how quickly Apple can ramp up its content library.”
Do the math. 100-million paying subscribers at $4.99 a month is almost half a billion dollars in revenue. Per month. A run rate of almost $6-billion per year. Netflix does about double that.